San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Last place in the National League West hosts last place in the National League Central as the San Diego Padres take on the Houston Astros at Petco Park. The Pares are -140 favorites over the Astros with an over/under run total of 6.5.
The San Diego Padres just missed out on the sweep of the Braves to end their road trip as they lost by a run on Wednesday. The Padres are seven games back in the division, 5-5 in their last 10 games, and a miserable 9-20 at home this season. As a team San Diego is 28th in hitting with a .232 team average led by Chase Headley at .274, Chris Denofria at .309, Cameron Maybin at .254, and Ryan Ludwick at .252. The Padres pitching staff has a team ERA of 3.28 as the starters are at 3.79 and the bullpen at 2.28. For game one of this series San Diego starts Tim Stauffer who picked up his first win of the season in his last start. For the season Stauffer has allowed 70 hits and 26 earned runs while striking out 51 in 65 innings of work.
The Houston Astros haven’t had a lot to cheer about this season but they are coming off of a three game sweep of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Astros are 11 games back in the NL Central, 11-17 in the road this year, and 6-4 in their last 10 games. As a team Houston is hitting .274 with Hunter Pence hitting .317, Brett Wallace hitting .316, and Michael Bourn hitting .273. As a team the Astros pitching staff has a team ERA of 4.58 with the starters at 4.56 and the bullpen at 4.62. For game one in San Diego Houston starts Bud Norris who hasn’t won in over a month. For the season Norris has allowed 65 hits and 28 earned runs while striking out 73 in 67 innings of work.
San Diego is 4-1 in their last five games, 1-4 in their last five game one of a series, and 2-6 in Stauffer’s last eight home starts against a team with a losing record. Houston is 5-1 in their last six road games, 1-4 in their last five against the National League West, and 1-4 in Norris’ last five starts. Houston is 2-5 in the last seven meetings of these two.
While I’m not expecting a ton of offense here, this totally is set aggressively low and I see it going over. Take the over 6.5 runs here.