Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
The New York Mets and the Pittsburgh Pirates close out their series at Citi Field. The Mets are -120 favorites over the Pirates with an over/under run total of 7.5.
The New York Mets got off to a good start in this series and also got off to a good start in game three on Wednesday but both of those went the same way after good starts, quickly and decisively downhill. Carlos Beltran, David Murphy, and Ruben Tejada all had two hits each and Justin Turner homered but it all led to just a three runs off of 10 hits for the Mets. Chris Capuano pitched well early but in the end his line read that he allowed eight hits and five runs while striking out two over six innings of work to take his sixth loss of the year while Pedro Beato offered no relief at all allowing three hits and three runs in just an inning on the mound. New York looks to salvage a win split in the series as they start Mike Pelfrey on Thursday afternoon. Pelfrey looks to have found his game again though his record doesn’t show it but his numbers for this season are allowing 70 hits and 35 earned runs while striking out 34 in 63 innings of work.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to make the transition from being an improving team to being a competitive team and they are definitely competing right now. On Wednesday Andrew McCutchen had three hits, and Neil Walker, Matt Diaz, and Lyle Overbay each had two hits as the Pirates put up a 14 hit nine run offensive effort. Kevin Correia put forth yet another solid effort on the mound as he allowed six hits and two runs over six innings of work to earn his eighth win of the year. On Thursday Pittsburgh looks to put an exclamation point on the series when they start Paul Maholm who is coming off of a three hit complete game shutout in his last start. For the season Maholm has allowed 58 hits and 25 earned runs while striking out 48 in 70.2 innings on the mound.
New York is 3-8 in their last 11 games overall, 18-8 in their last 26 home games against a left handed starter, and 3-9 in Pelfrey’s last 12 starts. Pittsburgh is 19-41 in their last 60 games against the NL East, 21-64 in their last 85 road games against a team with a losing record, and 3-13 in Maholm’s last 16 road starts. Pittsburgh is 2-5 in the last seven meetings of these two.
This should be a lower scoring game and I look for it to come in below the total. Take under 7.5 runs in this ballgame.