San Francisco Giants vs. Florida Marlins
Two of the better teams in baseball this season face off as the San Francisco Giants host the Florida Marlins. The Giants are -150 over the Marlins with an over/under run total set at 6.5.
The San Francisco Giants are playing their best baseball of the season as they are back in first place in the National League West. The Giants have won five games in a row, are 13-5 at home, and 7-3 in their last 10 games as they are three and a half games clear of the second place Rockies. As a team the Giants are hitting just .242 led by Freddy Sanchez and Buster Posey who are hitting .281, Nate Schierholtz hitting .263, and Cody Ross at .256. The Giants lean heavily on their pitching staff, which has a combined ERA of 3.17 with the starters at 3.12 and the bullpen at 3.26. For game one against the Marlins San Francisco starts Matt Cain who has allowed more than three runs in an outing just once all season. For the year Cain has allowed 49 hits and 21 earned runs while striking out 45 in 57.2 innings of work.
The Florida Marlins have been one of baseball’s more surprising teams and with the season more than a quarter finished they don’t appear to be going away anytime soon. The Marlins are 12-7 on the road this season, 5-5 in their last 10 games, and are two games ahead of their chasers in the NL Wild Card race. As a team Florida is hitting .249 led by Gaby Sanchez at .316, Mike Stanton at .257, and Emilio Bonifacio at .276. As a team the Marlins pitching staff has a team ERA of 3.45 with the starters at 3.87 and the bullpen at a rock solid 2.64. For game one at the defending World Champions Florida starts Ricky Nolasco who is yet to lose this season. For the year Nolasco has allowed 58 hits and 22 earned runs while striking out 49 in 59.2 innings on the mound.
San Francisco is 6-0 in their last six home games against a right-handed starter, 19-7 in their last 26 home games, and 21-6 in Cain’s last 27 starts. Florida is 16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss, 7-3 in their last 10 games against the National League West, and 7-3 in Nolasco’s last 10 starts against a team with a winning record. Florida is 2-5 in their last seven meetings against San Francisco and 0-4 in their last four games when Cain starts.
Runs have come at a premium in Giants games all season and I see no reason this one is any different. I’ll take the under 6.5 runs.