Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are -120 favorites over the Chicago Cubs tonight.  The over/under run total for the game is set at 8-runs. pitching matchup has right-hander Matt Garza going for the Cubs while the Brewers counter with left-hander Chris Narveson.

Milwaukee started the season poorly getting swept at Cincinnati, but the Brewers have played better on this current homestand. This will be the sixth game of a 7-game homestand that ends on Sunday. The Cubs started the season by splitting their first six games at home. This game is the second of a 9-game road trip for Chicago. Garza was in line for the win in his first start of the season for the Cubs last Sunday, but closer Carlos Marmol blew the save and the Cubs lost 5-4 to the Pirates. Garza had a weird line as he struck out a career-high 12 batters but he also gave up a career-high 12 hits, all of which were singles. The 12 strikeouts were the most ever by a Cubs pitcher in his first start with the team.  Narveson had a similar fate as Garza in his first start of the season. He threw six scoreless innings on Monday against the Braves before Takashi Saito blew a 1-0 lead and the Brewers lost 2-1 to the Braves on Monday. Narveson is a perfect 3-0 in his career against the Cubs with a 3.66 ERA.

The Cubs have won 11 of the last 20 games between the two teams. It has been somewhat of a road-team series as Chicago has won six of the last 10 in Milwaukee. The games have also been low scoring for the most part with the der going 6-4 in the last 10 at Milwaukee, including the final three last season. The Cubs have had a lot of success recently against left-handers, winning eight of their last nine. Five of their last seven games vs. lefties have gone er the total. Milwaukee goes the other way when facing a right-handed starter as the der’is 16-6 in the Brewers’ last 22 games against a righty.

I am taking the er in todays game.  Neither one of these pitchers are dominant pitchers for the total to be only 8 runs.  I believe that the run total for this game will get into double-digits.  I feel confident in this wager!


Over 8

April 9, 2011 by : Posted in Sportsbook No Comments

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