Baseball- Money Line Versus Run Line
If youre someone who sees a big favorite and instantly want to bet on the team youre going to need to rethink your strategy. When you lay money on a big favorite lets say -200 or more youre laying too much money to leave room for losses.
Baseball is like no other sport and teams are never dominating the league and running over every opponent. If you look at the best teams win ratio and the worst teams win ratio over the past couple season youll notice that there is only about a .300-.350 difference between the worst and best teams over the past couple seasons. With this in mind its easy to tell that the big favorites arent always going to win and when youre laying -200+ you cant afford to lose many bets.
If you look at the beginning of last year in baseball and take a look at the big favorites youll notice that you would have lost money if you bet on them. Out of the first fifteen games in the season last year with a big favorite of -200+ only nine of those teams won the game and six teams lost. This means if you were betting $100 on every bet you would have been down $400+. The reason youre down money is because you only won 60% of your games and youre laying -200+ on every one of those games.
Most bettors who see value in a heavy favorite on a given night will choose to use the run line instead of the money line. It makes it more difficult to win the bet, but youll be laying a lot less on each bet then you would be if you were betting on the money line. For instance, if a team is a money line favorite of -200 they might only be a -120 favorite if you bet on them with the run line. When you bet on the run line the team you bet on will need to win by -1.5 runs whereas on a money line bet the team only needs to win.
When youre looking at baseball dont look for the huge favorites just because it seems like the best bet. Always analyze each game for the night and look for the best match-up before you even go to sportsbook .com to see the odds. I never recommend laying money on a big favorite on the money line and the run line I only recommend it if you have a strong feeling about the game.
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